Improving methods for epidemiological control of canine visceral leishmaniasis based on a mathematical model. Impact on the incidence of the canine and human disease.
نویسندگان
چکیده
The mathematical model described by Dye (1996) condemned the epidemiological canine visceral leishmaniasis control campaign, considering it non-efficient. Using this model, we mathematically demonstrate that the control is not efficient, only at low kappa values (rate at which latent and infectious dogs are lost by the destruction program) which match the canine seropositivity observed in the field by the immunofluorescency (IF) blood eluates analysis. With higher k values, corresponding to IF (kappa = 0.07) or ELISA (kappa = 0.25) results in sera samples, the number of infectious dogs declines to a Ro =1 or Ro =0, respectively, interrupting the transmission and the advancement of epidemics. We also experimentally demonstrate that the dog removal, following the results of IF of sera, instead of eluates lead to a 57% (p < 0.005) decrease in canine cases and 87.5% (p < 0.005) in human cases. Our mathematical and experimental results indicate that the control campaign become more efficient by enhancing the sensitivity of the diagnostic assay.
منابع مشابه
A Leishmania infantum FML-ELISA for the Detection of Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Area of Iran
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متن کامل
Evaluation of a Novel Herbal Immunomodulator Drug (IMOD) in Treatment of Experimental Canine Visceral leishmaniasis
Toxicity and drug resistance against pentavalent antimonials, medications of choice in treatment of leishmaniasis for more than 5 decades, have become important subjects globally. This study was a randomized, open labeled trial that was designed to determine efficacy and safety of IMOD as a novel herbal immunomodulator drug for treatment of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL).Twenty healthy mon...
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عنوان ژورنال:
- Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias
دوره 76 3 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2004